2023 Year In Review Market Report

In this first edition of the Monthly Outline for 2024, we recap 2023 and look at what might be in store for 2024. In addition to the usual Monthly Mortgage & Stats Outline reports, we are very pleased to include the following additional items (full details and links are included later in the email)

• Bank of Canada’s Rate Announcement: Commentary & Links
• 2024 Economic Calendar: Key Dates to Know!
• Tax Time & Mortgages Guide: A Critical Combination

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At the bottom of this post you will find detailed Executive Summary reports for each region in TRREB. Each Executive Summary Report includes a map of the included zones and a 17 page summary for each property type (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos)
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The Information / statistics you can find in each Executive Summary Report include:

• Data comparing the – 1, 3, 5 and 10 year sales averages.
• Stats categories – Sales, New Listings, Active Listings, Average Price, Months of Inventory (MOI), Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR)

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Please find below the links to this month’s special edition of the Mortgage & Economic Outline Report and accompanying video.  Topics covered within this report include:

Report Contents: Bank of Canada Rate Announcement & AnalysisMajor Banks’ Overnight Rate Forecast for 2024 and 2025Interest Rate and Home Price / Sales CorrelationBond Yields Have Dropped Since October – Why it mattersRenew Crisis Ahead – Or more smoke than fire?A Deep Dive on Condo Supply – Opportunities ahead?

Bank of Canada Leaves Rate Unchanged

On January 24th, the Bank of Canada once again held its overnight rate at 5.00% for the 4th consecutive meeting (the last increase was July 2023).

We’re cautiously optimistic that the next move will be downward as inflation begins to ease across the economy. The Bank of Canada stated: “The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025”.

While the Bank “is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation”, their explicit statement from December that the Bank “remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed” was not included in this announcement. This potentially signals a shift from whether interest rates are high enough, to how long until they can begin to be lowered.

The next Bank of Canada meeting is on March 6th, 2024.

Are you looking to make a purchase in the next 30 to 90 days? Over the past three months, bond yields have fallen dramatically in anticipation that the Bank of Canada may be done raising rates. The impact? Fixed mortgage rates have also fallen. If you are interested in discussing your options, please reach out to us today for more information.

Link – January 2024 Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

Link – Jan 24, 2024 – Bank of Canada Press Release

Key Dates to Know!

Wondering where rates are headed in 2024?  While no one has a crystal ball, there are certain dates that can cause waves in the mortgage market.  To help calm the waters, we’ve prepared a 2024 economic calendar with key dates of importance.  While we haven’t included every date, we are trying to highlight the most relevant items that could impact both fixed and variable rates, as well as the overall mortgage market.

Visit our blog article here for a full description of how the below reports/announcement types can impact the mortgage market.  Our calendar provides specific dates throughout 2024 for the following key reports and announcements:

• “Bank of Canada Rate” = Bank of Canada Meeting / Rate Announcement Dates
• “Fed Rate” = US Federal Reserve Meeting / Rate Announcement Dates
• “Jobs Report” = Labour Force Survey (Statistics Canada)
• “CPI / Inflation Canada” = Consumer Price Index (Statistics Canada)
• “CPI / Inflation US” = Consumer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• “GDP (Monthly)” = Gross domestic product by industry (Statistics Canada)
• “GDP (Quarterly)” = Gross domestic product, income and expenditure (Statistics Canada)

2024 Tax Time & Mortgages – A Critical Combination

T4As, T4s, T1s, T5s, Taxes, Taxes, Taxes! When it comes to mortgages, it is never too early to start planning. With the income tax filing season quickly approaching, it is a critical time to review how your tax filing may positively or negatively impact your purchasing power (or refinancing options) in 2024 and beyond.

The purpose of this guide is to provide some key considerations for self-employed individuals or employees/contractors that earned variable income such as bonuses, commission, or overtime during 2023.

If you are wondering how your upcoming tax return may impact your mortgage options and/or purchasing power, please reach out us today to help.

The below list of articles and videos are curated from major news outlets across Canada and licensed and formatted for easy sharing across social media:

Bank of Canada Keeps Key Rate at 5%, Says Talks Have Shifted Away From More Hikes (The Globe and Mail)

VIDEO (TD Chief Economist): What The Bank of Canada Should Be Paying Attention To (Financial Post)

Prospect of Bank of Canada Rate Cuts is Boosting Canadians’ View On The Economy (Financial Post)

Interest Rate Cuts, Return To Growth On Economic Horizon, Deloitte Says (The Canadian Press)

All 416 Report   |   Core 416 Report  |  All 905 Report

Halton Report   |   Peel Report  |  Oakville Report  |  Burlington Report

York Report  |  Durham Report  |  Simcoe Report